COVID-19 Data For My Neighborhood as of April 12, 2021

If you live on the west side of Los Angeles, this article might help you understand the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in your neighborhood.

See the article introducing this series for an explanation of the data presented here.

LA County Deaths and 10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases

Here is the plot showing daily deaths (red line) and the 10-day rolling sum of daily cases (blue line) for LA County.

The events, arrows, and lines on the plot continue to tell a consistent story. Referring to the letters on the lower plot:

[D] There is no evidence of a surge in cases following the transition from Purple to Red tier. There is no doubt this is a result, at least in part, of the increasing number of people who have received a vaccine. The transition from Red to Orange tier is now one week in the past. A resulting surge in cases, if any, will not appear in this data for another week or two.

10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases in My Local Area

Here is the plot showing the 10-day rolling sum of cases for communities of interest to me.

The levels for both Malibu + Palisades and Mar Vista + Venice remain above their respective lows from late summer/early fall last year.

Daily Rate of Diagnosed Cases per 100,000 Population for My Local Area

Here is the plot of the daily rate per 100,000 for communities of interest to me. This plot covers the last 60 days.

It is worth pointing out, in absolute terms, the metrics represented on this plot reflect relatively small numbers of cases. For example, the combined population of Malibu + Palisades is about 35,000. A daily rate of 10 per 100,000 is therefore 3 to 4 new cases a day.

Community Immunity

LA County has provided updated vaccination data as of April 4th. Here is the bar graph showing vaccinations combined with the estimated number of infections based on positive test diagnoses. I continue to use a ratio of 5 actual cases for every positive test. Even with that, the percent of the population achieving immunity through vaccination is greater than the percent who have achieved immunity by having previously been infected. This difference will only grow as the vaccination rate far exceeds the rate of new cases.

In the first week of April, the county was vaccinating around 90,000 people a day. I believe the county and the state will continue to provide vaccinations to everyone, including those who have already been infected and have recovered, for at least another couple of months. I hope all those eligible continue to seek and obtain vaccinations at their earliest opportunity.