COVID-19 Data For My Neighborhood as of January 18, 2021
If you live on the west side of Los Angeles this might help you understand the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in your neighborhood.
See this article for an explanation of the data presented here.
LA County Deaths and 10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases
Here is the plot showing daily deaths (red line) and the 10-day rolling sum of the daily cases (blue line). Fingers crossed, it looks like the surge from late November holidays may have peaked. Unfortunately, if things follow the normal three-week pattern, the surge from late December holidays should begin to appear in this data next week.
The events, arrows, and lines on the plot continue to tell a consistent story. Referring to the letters on the lower plot:
[A] LA County issued the Safer at Home order on November 30th. Since then, rather than peaking and beginning to decline, the number of cases (blue line) seems to have reached a plateau. The peak in 7-day rolling average of daily deaths (red line) appears to have passed.
[B] With the late December holidays a few weeks in the past, any surge that might result is probably just around the corner. Because the number of diagnosed cases (blue line) has not declined significantly from its recent peak, and considering the stresses on the health care system, any additional surge from December holiday gatherings could be catastrophic.
The annotations at the right side of the plot emphasize the magnitude of the fall/winter surge.
10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases in My Local Area
Here is the plot showing the 10-day rolling sum for communities of interest to me. These numbers have also reached a plateau though the Malibu + Palisades line (blue) shows signs of slowly declining.
Daily Rate of Diagnosed Cases per 100,000 Population for My Local Area
Here is the plot of the daily rate per 100,000 for communities of interest to me. This plot covers the last 60 days.
Over the course of this fall/winter surge, the daily rate has been remarkably steady at unfortunately high levels.
A Grim Milestone is Upon Us
Today, January 20th, 2021, Johns Hopkins University of Medicine is reporting over 402,000 deaths in the US. CDC is reporting 398,009 deaths. By either count, within the next few days, deaths in the US from COVID-19 will surpass the total number of US military deaths during World War II.
Americans are dying at a rate three times higher than the rate soldiers, North and South combined, died during the Civil War.
Human psychology is such a strange thing. Several thousand deaths in a single day — Pearl Harbor, 9/11 — can throw us into shock and a frenzy of activity that can be sustained for years even at great cost. Several thousand deaths a day for months on end and we become inured to the point where many can’t or won’t tolerate even minor inconveniences. No rallying the public to support the cause. No war bonds. No gasoline rationing.
World War II propelled America from the depths of the Great Depression to the heights of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful country. Whither COVID-19?
