COVID-19 Data For My Neighborhood as of March 8, 2021

If you live on the west side of Los Angeles, this article might help you understand the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in your neighborhood.

See the article introducing this series for an explanation of the data presented here.

LA County Deaths and 10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases

Here is the plot showing daily deaths (red line) and the 10-day rolling sum of daily cases (blue line). The rate of deaths in the county is declining but is still nearly twice the rate at the summer peak.

The events, arrows, and lines on the plot continue to tell a consistent story. Referring to the letter on the lower plot:

[C] After more than two weeks, it has become clear there isn’t an immediate surge as a result of relaxed restrictions in Los Angeles. There is every reason to expect that the decline in the rate of deaths will continue.

10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases in My Local Area

Here is the plot showing the 10-day rolling sum of cases for communities of interest to me.

The 10-day rolling sum for both Malibu + Palisades and Mar Vista + Venice continues at around five times the fall low and slightly above the summer high. If something doesn’t change, this could continue until vaccinations reach a much larger proportion of the population.

Daily Rate of Diagnosed Cases per 100,000 Population for My Local Area

Here is the plot of the daily rate per 100,000 for communities of interest to me. This plot covers the last 60 days.

All of the lines on this plot have been between 10 and 20 for more than a month. Given that transmission of the virus is driven by interaction in person, this trend indicates that broadly speaking, the mix of behavior (interaction) and precautions (distancing and masking) hasn’t changed in the last month.

Community Immunity

The LA County Department of Public Health web site presents community data for vaccinations. The most recent update is as of February 20, 2021. LA County has administered around 500,000 vaccine doses since the 20th.

The plot below shows population immunity levels calculated by combining the number of people infected by the virus and the number of people who have received at least one vaccination dose. The number of people infected assumes that testing identifies 1 in 5 actual cases (the number infected is 5 times the number who test positive).

There is an odd dichotomy here. The more people who receive vaccines, the higher the community immunity level. Good. The more people who get infected, the higher the community immunity level. Good? Both alternatives have benefit to the community, even if one potentially involves costly medical care and may result in death. Getting vaccinated is clearly better for the individual. I’ll be signing up for mine as soon as it becomes available.