COVID-19 Data For My Neighborhood as of May 3, 2021

If you live on the west side of Los Angeles, this article might help you understand the prevalence of COVID-19 cases in your neighborhood.

See the article introducing this series for an explanation of the data presented here.

LA County Deaths and 10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases

Here is the plot showing daily deaths (red line) and the 10-day rolling sum of daily cases (blue line) for LA County.

The events, arrows, and lines on the plot continue to tell a consistent story. Referring to the letters on the lower plot:

[E] The shift from Red to Orange Tier has not resulted in a surge in cases. As of Thursday, May 6, LA County will move to Yellow Tier, the least restrictive tier in the color system here in California.

10-day Rolling Sum of Diagnosed Cases in My Local Area

Here is the plot showing the 10-day rolling sum of cases for communities of interest to me. Both curves have finally fallen to levels comparable to the lowest levels earlier in the pandemic.

Daily Rate of Diagnosed Cases per 100,000 Population for My Local Area

Here is the plot of the daily rate per 100,000 for communities of interest to me. This plot covers the last 60 days. Rates continue at satisfyingly low levels.

Here is the same plot but showing data since the beginning of the pandemic. The heavy blue line is the 7-day rolling average for Malibu. You can see how all three curves are now at levels comparable to the lowest levels occurring earlier in the pandemic.

Community Immunity

There is no new data for vaccinations in the local communities this week.

As of April 28, over 7.8 million doses of vaccine have been administered in LA County. The Department of Public Health reports 53.9% of the population in the county has received at least one dose. Added to the 12% of the population that has already been infected, the general level of immunity across the county is now at least 65%.

There have been numerous articles on the internet expressing concern about achieving, or failing to achieve, “herd immunity” in the US. The assumption of many of the articles seems to be that “herd immunity” means the virus is eradicated: no longer present in the population. Unfortunately, eradication seems unlikely. Smallpox is the only disease that is generally considered to have been eradicated. Measles, mumps, polio, and all other viral diseases are still with us despite widespread vaccination efforts. Unless the available vaccines provide lifelong immunity, it seems likely we will be faced with an annual or at least periodic vaccine regimen for the foreseeable future. I wonder if a COVID-19 vaccine can be added to your annual flu shot.